​After four months of large M&A deals keeping invested capital levels afloat, capital markets experienced an absolute drop off in M&A activity. According to preliminary Pitchbook data, there were only 269 deals for a total of $12.2 billion, representing a 23% and 85% decline, respectively. Compared against the same period one year ago, May’s totals are roughly half.

​Easing of quarantine restrictions and hopes for a vaccine gave US equities a boost during May, adding on to strong year-to-date performances in large cap indices. Year-to-date, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones gained 10.6%, 27.3%, and 2.3%, respectively, while the Russell 2000, a small cap index, is down 4.9%. In May alone, the large cap S&P 500 and Dow Jones gained 4.5% and 4.3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq and small cap Russell 2000 gained 6.8% and 6.4%, respectively. Optimism surrounding reopening economies  supported equities during May.

​As we publish our Economic and Public Market Update for the first quarter of 2020, it is obvious that the first quarter was a wild ride. It included US stock markets reaching all-time highs and ended with the fastest 20% market drop on record.  The drop, spurred on by the coronavirus pandemic, put an end to the longest bull market in history.

​While nothing compares to the loss of human life, the economic toll of the pandemic and the practical shutdown of the economy has been significant to say the least. The full impact is still playing out, including whether we can achieve the V-shaped recovery we all hope for, but the economic results began to deteriorate in the final weeks of the first quarter. Advanced estimates of the first quarter GDP came in at -4.8%, marking the first quarterly decline since 2014. Estimates for second quarter GDP project a decline of more than 30%.

​Mergers and acquisitions have decreased – or at least paused temporarily - as the coronavirus has kept businesses shuttered and dealmakers at home or focused on other matters. Deal counts are down 54% since COVID-19’s most recent peak in January and invested capital figures have remained roughly constant. Year-to-date compared with 2019, deal count is down 11.4% and total invested capital is up just 4%. 

​Merger and acquisition deal count figures continued to slide in March as COVID-19’s impact unfolded across the United States. During the month, deal count totaled 433, representing a 25.9% decline from February, while invested capital grew 0.6% to $96.4 billion. For the first quarter, deal count is down 3.11% compared with 2019, while invested capital is up 5.06%.

​A handful of large-scale M&A deals kept total spending levels afloat in February, despite declining deal count figures. During the month, there were 691 corporate M&A deals, 25% lower than January, and $123 billion in spending, which is 14% greater than the month before. Moreover, median deal size and post-valuation figures are up 21% and 35%, respectively, month over month. 

​After starting February with strong gains in the 4-6% range for the major US indices, the market collapsed from record highs and into correction territory within the last six trading days of the month. The market sustained gains during the first half of the month as government and economic officials around the globe seemed to be taking appropriate action to insulate economies from the effects of the novel coronavirus outbreak. However, by the last two weeks of February, investors were spooked by weak economic data domestically and abroad, stoking fears of a global economic slowdown. 

​Skyline Advisors has released its latest Capital Markets Review: Midwest Edition for 2019. The report details activity and trends for mergers and acquisitions, private equity deals, and venture capital deals for both national and Midwest geographies. Key highlights include:

• Mergers and Acquisitions: M&A value declined from a record high in 2018, reaching $1.8 billion in 2019 across more than 9,000 deals.
• Private Equity: The total value of Midwest PE deals increased 38% in 2019 to $27 billion. Meanwhile, PE fundraising topped $300 billion for the first time ever during the year.
• Venture Capital: VC value and volume nearly topped a historic 2018, with $136.5 billion spent across nearly 10,800 deals. The year was a record for VC exits, with value from exits nearly doubling 2018’s amount. Midwest activity paralleled that of the US as a whole.
• Economy: The economy continued to grow in 2019, with real GDP increasing 2.3%. However, job openings fell at the fastest pace since 2009 in December, and the coronavirus is expected to affect economic growth, with the Fed already attempting to counter its effects by decreasing the Fed Funds Rate at the beginning of March

The complimentary copy of the full report, which also contains economic data and public market data of interest to owners and managers of middle market businesses, is available here.

Skyline Advisors has released its latest Capital Markets Review: Midwest Edition for the third quarter of 2019. The report details activity and trends for mergers and acquisitions, private equity deals, and venture capital deals for both national and Midwest geographies. Key highlights include:

• National M&A: Though total US M&A deal count declined 18% from Q2, the total value of deals increased 37% in the third quarter, reaching a value of $340 billion
• Midwest M&A: Total Midwest M&A value topped $25 billion through the third quarter, led by Mutual of Omaha Bank’s $1-billion sale to CIT Group
• Private Equity: Amid economic uncertainty, PE investors deployed less capital across fewer deals in the third quarter: both nationally and in the Midwest
• PE Fundraising: Fundraising among private equity funds nearly topped all of 2018, with $191 billion raised year to date through Q3 compared to $196 billion in all of 2018
• Venture Capital: Midwest venture capitalists deployed the most capital ($263 million) in a quarter since last year and across the most investments (51 deals) in a quarter in more than three years

The 14-page report also contains economic data and public market data of interest to owners and managers of middle market businesses. Access a complimentary copy of the full report here.

​Major stock indices fell in August for the first time since May, in which indices lost in excess of 6%. In August, the S&P 500 declined 1.8%, falling to 2,926.46, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 each declined 1.7%, 2.6%, and 5.1%, respectively. The month was characterized by excess volatility, as each index counted 10 or more days of 1%-or-greater swings.