March Marks 90th Consecutive Month of Job Gains, According to Report

​Last week, the National Center for the Middle Market published its quarterly Middle Market Indicator (MMI) report, the March jobs report showed closer-to-normal job gains and low unemployment, and the ongoing trade tension between the U.S. and China continued with more imposed tariff exchanges. 

• According to the most recent quarterly report from the National Center for the Middle Market, middle market companies reported year-over-year revenue and employment growth rates of 8.4% and 6.3%, respectively. According to the survey, confidence levels in the local and global economy reached an all-time high at 94% and 82%, respectively, while confidence levels in the national economy reached 87%, falling slightly from 90% in the first quarter of 2017. The Short-Term Index - which measures business leaders' expectations regarding business climate, demand, and sales for the next three months - jumped to 96 from 80 in the previous quarter.

• At the end of last week, The Labor Department released its monthly jobs report, which noted 103,000 non-farm payroll jobs were added in the month of March. March’s addition represented roughly a third of February's gains (i.e., 326,000 in jobs gains). Monthly job gains expectations were estimated at more than 175,000; however, the decrease is not surprising since February's job report was much larger than expected across all estimates. Furthermore, March's positive news marked the 90th consecutive month of job gains. The unemployment rate of 4.1% remained unchanged for the sixth consecutive month. Also, the labor force participation rate, or the share of people working or wanting to work relative to the whole economy, remained unchanged at 63%. It should be noted that the Labor Department also revised its January and February job growth numbers, which resulted in a net loss of 50,000 jobs relative to the prior estimates.

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• The US manufacturing sector continues to recover, adding nearly 22,000 jobs during the month of March. In a sector where factories have seen tremendous job gains over the past year, the ongoing trade tensions with China could hinder the sector's rebounding growth. The impact of these import tariffs and the subsequent Chinese trade restrictions is not fully known yet. Regardless, American business owners are likely to be impacted in some manner due to the looming uncertainty, increased volatility, and eventual outcomes of the trade exchange. Given March results, consumers should be fully aware that the economy's recent growth is not fool-proof and can certainly be influenced by international trade negotiations.