Last week, gross domestic product figures showed slightly stronger economic output, particularly driven by consumer spending. The personal consumption expenditures index missed the Federal Reserve’s inflation target for the fourth straight month. Also, unemployment applications increased for the week ending October 20, but continuing claims declined for the week.
Last week, U.S. retail sales growth dramatically missed economists’ expectations for September, according to Commerce Department data. The Labor Department released their data from the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, indicating more than one job opening for every unemployed worker. Also, the Federal Open Market Committee shared the minutes from the end-of-September meeting, indicating a potential for interest rates to continue to rise.
Labor figures released last week showed a nearly full labor market. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, wages grew at a controlled 2.8%, and jobless claims were near levels not seen since 1969. However, the impressive jobs report spooked bond investors about future rate hikes by the Fed, prompting a bond market selloff that sent yields to seven-year highs.
Last week, data showed that retail spending declined in August, jobless claims rose for the week ending September 22nd, the personal consumption expenditures index hit the Fed’s targets, and consumer sentiment rose.
Weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level since December of 1969, showing signs of continued labor market strength. The U.S. trade gap narrowed in the second quarter thanks to increased foreign demand for U.S. goods and services, as well as repatriated cash. Lastly, Merrill Lynch’s survey of money managers revealed increased investor pessimism about the outlook of the economy for the next twelve months.
Last week, the Census Bureau announced that Americans’ incomes are growing and poverty is shrinking. The Federal Reserve announced that consumer credit grew more than expected in July. Lastly, the Labor Department concluded that job openings increased to a record-high level.
For August, the U.S. posted surprising job figures, adding more jobs than expected and finding the wage inflation that has been missing for so long. Further, the unemployment rate maintained at consistent levels. Lastly, the ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index was released for August, registering at its highest level in 14 years.
The spread between ten- and two-year treasuries flattened to its narrowest margin in more than a decade last week, falling as low as 0.19. The yield curve is a major market-driven economic leading indicator. The NY Fed’s reduction in their GDP estimate on Friday may have contributed to the decline. In other news, jobless claims fell slightly, once again showing continued strength of the labor market, and Creighton University released their monthly Mid-America Economic Index for the month of July and their Rural Mainstreet Index for the month of August. Both Creighton indices showed general economic strength but pointed to some concerns, including effects from trade wars.
Data released by the Labor Department last week showed consumer prices rising dramatically, producer prices stagnating from the prior month, and job vacancies increasing to 6.7 million in the second quarter.
Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the unemployment rate fell, hourly wages grew modestly, and the economy added fewer jobs than expected. Also last week, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave the federal funds rate unchanged and automakers announced U.S. sales fell in July.
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